Conflict Management In The Middle East. (Not Conflict Resolution)
The USA once more brokers peace talks in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinians. After decades of negotiations, everyone knows the issues. The bargaining chips -- recognition of the Jewish state, right of return, prisoners, compensation, territory, settlements, demilitarization -- even for those of us half a world away from the action, are all plain to see on this high-stakes poker table.
When I traveled to Israel and through the West Bank this year, I got first-hand confirmation from both Jewish Israelis and Palestinians that the polls I keep hearing about are accurate: people from both sides want the peace and security that could come with a two-state solution. They want a chance for a life where conflict is not always the ugly elephant in the room.
The problem is not the warmongers among the negotiators. There are none. Of Benjamin Netanyahu, Mahmoud Abbas and the American moderators, none will say they want a perpetuation of the conflict. The differences here are what peace looks like.
It seems that for the Palestinian leadership, peace means, at minimum, a sovereign Palestinian state that is judenrein -- cleansed of Jews. It will also mean an Israeli state that accepts the "return" of millions of Palestinian "refugees" born decades after Palestinians moved into camps or became non-citizens in other Arab states, swamping Israel demographically. A two-state solution quickly becomes a one-state solution, with the Jews becoming once again a vulnerable minority among an Arab majority not known elsewhere for respecting freedom or minorities of any kind, in particular the Hebrew-speaking kind. The catastrophic result of the unilateral territorial concession in Gaza -- more rockets, terrorist raids and random gun slayings -- seems to confirm this.
Jewish Israelis recognize this as the true position of the Palestinian leadership (whether led by Fatah or Hamas). It is likely that the Israeli negotiators have internalized these arguments. Then result is that in place of negotiating for peace, Israelis may be tempted to negotiate only for "conflict management". They will be unwilling to give in to violence or the threat of a demographic deluge.
The temptation will be to give up nothing, or at least nothing significant, put up higher walls, keep investing in a strong military and hope against hope that intransigence and double-talk from the Palestinian leadership will eventually give way to a true moderate leadership. This leadership would need to be willing to accept a postage-stamp (well, likely two postage stamps with a coridoor in between) demilitarized state where Palestinians might be true citizens in their own land. Ideally, it would be a democratic state that respected human rights and perhaps even tolerated minorities in a way that the Gaza terror statelet and even the allegedly more liberal West Bank Palestinian terroritory do not. But that would be up to the Palestinians themselves.
If these talks can result in peace, the world will be the better for it. But it ought to be a peace that does not undermine the national dreams of either Israelis or Palestinians. Otherwise, we're still just talking about conflict management.
Jonathon Narvey is the Editor of The Propagandist.
